Imagine a scenario during a baseball game where an Orioles hitter is locked in an intense at-bat. With the count full at 3-2, he wisely lets a pitch that's clearly outside the strike zone go by, confidently heading towards first base—only to have the umpire call it strike three. Instead of getting on base, the Orioles now face another out, dramatically altering the momentum of the inning. Such moments can be pivotal and often hinge on incorrect calls by umpires.
Does this seem to happen to the Orioles more frequently than to other teams? You're not just imagining it. Over the last few seasons, Orioles batters have been significantly impacted by erroneous ball-strike calls. Statcast data reveals that since the start of the 2023 season, 2.0% of pitches that fall outside the strike zone have been mistakenly called strikes against Orioles hitters, which is slightly higher than the American League average of 1.9%.
In an ideal scenario, one would hope that Orioles hitters could similarly benefit from bad calls, with pitches in the zone being wrongly called as balls. Unfortunately, that’s not what has transpired. In that same time frame, only 1.6% of pitches that should have been called strikes were instead ruled as balls for Orioles batters, marking the lowest rate across the league.
At first glance, a 0.4% discrepancy between missed calls for strikes and balls might not seem substantial. However, in the context of Major League Baseball, it represents the most significant difference when compared to any other American League team, second only to the San Francisco Giants. Over the past three years, this translates to a staggering total of 273 pitches where the Orioles have been adversely affected. This data highlights a clear trend: the Orioles’ offense has been disproportionately unlucky due to umpires' decisions regarding ball-strike calls.
It’s important to clarify that I’m not implying that the umpires are intentionally targeting the Orioles. The task of calling balls and strikes is incredibly challenging, especially with borderline pitches, and it’s unrealistic to expect perfect accuracy every time. Nevertheless, the Orioles have intentionally built an offense comprised of players who possess a keen understanding of the strike zone. When these hitters are regularly faced with strikes on pitches they recognize as balls, it disrupts their approach at the plate. They may feel compelled to swing at pitches they would typically let go, resulting from a lack of trust in the umpire’s judgment.
The impact of these miscalls has been widespread among the Orioles’ roster. Every one of the nine hitters on the 40-man roster with two or more years of MLB experience has been more negatively affected by incorrect strike calls than they have gained from errant ball calls throughout their careers. In fact, some players exhibit stark differences.
Here’s a brief look at a few notable Orioles hitters:
- Jordan Westburg: 2.6% of pitches outside the zone called strikes vs. 1.1% in the zone called balls, a difference of 1.5%.
- Adley Rutschman: 2.6% called strikes versus 1.6% called balls, a 1.0% disparity.
- Ryan Mountcastle: 2.2% strikes vs. 1.3% balls, showing a 0.9% difference.
- Tyler O’Neill: 2.4% called strikes compared to 1.5% balls, also a 0.9% gap.
This trend indicates that a majority of the Orioles hitters have been victims of incorrect calls, facing unfavorable counts far more often than their counterparts on other teams.
Now, let’s pivot to some encouraging news. As many fans may already know, a significant change is on the horizon for baseball in the coming season: the introduction of the Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS). This system will allow players—whether a hitter, pitcher, or catcher—to challenge a ball or strike decision immediately after it occurs, employing Hawk-Eye technology to verify the exact location of the pitch. Each team will have two challenges per game, and they can retain these if they are successful in their appeals.
The ABS implementation could potentially transform the way Orioles hitters approach their at-bats, offering them a chance to overturn the unjust strike calls that have plagued them in the past. This development could particularly benefit players like Jordan Westburg and Adley Rutschman, who have been notably affected by incorrect calls in recent times. Westburg has shown resilience despite these challenges, while Rutschman has struggled. Perhaps regaining confidence in his ability to discern pitches will help him break free from his 1.5-year slump. The same could be said for the entire Orioles offense.
However, it’s essential to note that not every questionable call will be overturned. Since teams can only make two unsuccessful challenges per game, they will need to be strategic about when they choose to use them. For instance, a batter may opt not to challenge a called strike in the first inning with no one on base if they aren’t completely sure it was incorrect. But in high-stakes situations, such as a loaded bases scenario in the late innings, you can bet there will be a challenge on a crucial borderline pitch.
The introduction of the ABS is a much-needed enhancement in Major League Baseball. It serves as a quick and effective method to reduce the frequency of blown calls that could otherwise sway the outcome of games. For the 2026 Orioles, this innovation may very well hold the key to revitalizing their offense.
